December 12, 2005

Commodity Boom - Is it just starting

Bubble is the word of the day in financial media (99 percent putz's), since the internet crash in 2000. That term is now floated around much too easily by your media companies (more about that later). Real estate bubble, oil bubble, commodity bubble, China bubble. Bubbleitis, bubblitis. Bubble Boy?

We need to be clear about one thing - the Bubble is a rare thing (unless your kids are 6 and 8 - lot's of bubbles). Witnessing the rise and the collapse of the internet stocks was something to behold.

The rise from the dead of today's internet leaders is not a bubble. The survivors and new leaders are in the early stages of growth and leadership. The metals and commodities are not a bubble. The terror premium is here forever.

Terror works in one direction for most stocks (down), not commodities (up).

The first tastes of middle class in poor and third world countries is going to be tough to reverse so I imagine the term "bubble" in the media is here to stay. Don't be fooled though - booms and busts will now go on frequently in India, China and Russia, but as an investor you will be handed thousands more opportunities to make money. Read Thomas Friedman's great book _The World is Flat_ to start you on your way.

As Mark Cuban (founder of Broadcast.com) has aptly reminded us in his blog www.blogmaverick.com), it only takes capitalizing on one great idea or opportunity in business.


In Summary:


The Media - Putz's

Eveyrone else (at least for today) Not a putz!

Capitalizing on just one great opportunity in the next 20 years - Retirement!

My mission than - "Point out the putz's and to a lesser extent, the yutz's, who will cloud your judgement and help find that one great idea that will help us retire together (but not near me)."

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