December 19, 2005
Even More on Apple
Apple - 60 billion capitalization
Microsoft - 285 billion
Apple - 9 billion in cash
Microsoft - 40 billon
Subtract the cash because both have near nil debt gives you 51 billion and 245 billion.
Apple has two hour line-ups to buy products this christmas. Microsoft has linux as a competitor.
Apple would have to increase almost 500 percent or Microsoft decline by 80 percent. Assume somewhere in between and you sense the possibility.
I don't think the media will ever grasp the changes that blogging and podcasting are bringing to the media world. It is not in their interest to write about how they are going out of business so what you need to do is spend some time in an Apple store and see it for yourself.
I agree with the Apple naysayers that Ipod sales will slow at some point - likely later next year if ever. It is iTunes that is undervalued at this point. It is the blades of the Gilette model. It is impossible to estimate the growth of such a new phenomenon.
Earlier in the year, I looked into a start-up which we named FUEL, focused on filling people's Ipod's with Music. I just felt I needed to be part of the economy of Ipod. It is early, very early still. I passed or various reasons, mainly my energy was not there for a start-up and anyways, why not just own Apple. If I followed my own advice, my portfolio would be up 300 percent just this year. Who needs a start-up. Better at my age to find emerging leaders in the Ipod economy.
Apple still looks like the best bet, just wish they would screw up for a quarter and let me feel like I was not paying full retail for the stock. Come on, pull a Gap already!