January 06, 2006

The best analayst of the last five years

Donald Coxe from BMO - In Canada has hands down been the most right, best analyst since the market peaked in year 2000.

If you believe as I do that the trend is your friend, you stay with the guy until he is done. Mr. Coxe will never be done, but he is due to be wrong.

Thing is, he writes so well, who cares.

From his detailed, monthly research comes the opening page that summarizes his views of the year ahead:

Happy New Year? Based on recent meetings with clients, investors aren't oozing optimism about 2006. So we thought the best thing we could do for them is to send them an issue of Basic Points devoted entirely to their concerns. This could be characterized as a fresh approach. As some clients have rather caustically observed, we seem to revel in writing lengthy essays on Page Sixteen themes, while they are being buffeted by the market's reaction to Page One stories. So what are institutional clients fretting about? First is the question of the Republicans' fall in voter approval as mid-term elections loom and the Democratic Party develops momentum for the move back to power. Second is a potential US—and maybe global—economic slowdown from a pricking of the housing bubble. Third is the likelihood of the resumption of the dollar's bear market. Fourth is the problematic outlook for commodity stocks during a US slowdown or recession—which would probably produce a slowdown in China. Fifth is which way the flat yield curve moves toward normalcy: will long rates finally respond to the Fed's tightening and the skyhigh prices for oil, gas, and metals, or will they fall in fear of a recession? Sixth is the possibility of a flu pandemic. These are the "bad news" themes clients ask us about most. By dealing with them all in the year's first issue, we have left room for good news stories as the year unfolds. The year started off with good news for our followers: The headline on Investors Business Daily's article summarizing last year's US stock market performance read, "Metals, Oils Led Market in '05—Again." We may well be heading for what twice-triumphant sports teams crave—a "Threepeat." Happy New Year!

Good stuff indeed. Of course, shit happens! it is the stuff nobody can predict that could upset these opinions. In the meantime, go with the hot hand.

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