May 15, 2006

Apple - don't believe the naysayers

All good trends need disbelievers. No one has more disbelievers than Apple. Thank goodness. The stock has climbed on the back of all those worriers.

You can't ignore the market risk and multiple risk in a high beta stock like Apple. I don't.

That said, what a completely misunderstood story this remains.

Thanks goodness for Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal. He has been a great cheerleader of the Apple story and about the only journalist to get the story correct.

It is the products stupid! Good piece today on the iPhone (has this story just been beaten to death) that links to the component (Microsoft) vs. the end-to end model (Apple) by Mossberg.

The phone just does not need to happen to make this stock go. The software is what matters in that war. iTunes wins.

The key to making big money here is to game the outcome of this new sourcing strategy war in PC's and electronics. That is not yet decided.

I have made my decision a while ago.

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