May 25, 2006

I love it when the markets make sense.

When I used to trade every day, I would yell at my screen and question my intelligence.

Now that I don't trade, I only have to question my intelligence. That is still a huge win.

A 10,000 foot view of the market is just so much more productive. You can listen, absorb and watch things develop. I have actually started to believe MORE in the way markets work. The further away you step, having just some knowledge, the more rational the markets become.

Today, I will take that Satelite view of Satellite stocks. The math just never made sense. It likely never will. Streaming technology may not make it in time, but neither will the car manufacturers. If they do make it, they better manage their cashflow better. Management has not shown an ability to do it in the past, so betting on a seminal thought change is gambling. From 10,000 feet, I am learning and hope you are seeing it in my writing and investing - you don't need to gamble and hope.

The market will always tempt you. Look at the Vonage train wreck of an IPO. Unless Vonage creates some new technology with the money it just raised, it will suffer the same slow death. It's stock will just be a faster victim of the markets based on it's own timing of existence.

It is all just one giant timeline that good management teams can slow down or speed up in the appropriate circumstances. Banker's and media just stand on the timeline and make predictions - they justify their existence saying they can predict the next 30 minutes and their research will slow it down for you. If you stand far enough away, it is plenty slow enough for you to manage on your own.

Comments:
How do you actually go and stay at 10,000 ft?
Can you explain it more?

thanks in advance
 
A good and fair question. I will outline how I developed my blogroll to do just that.
 
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