May 19, 2006

K.I.S.S. not KISS



Last Friday my gut said this was a meltdown week ahead . I was interested in seeing the weekend headlines and as I reported Monday, they seemed way too calm given the late week selloff.

Rest assured the headlines this weekend will be filled with ghastly market predictions and warnings. The regular bulls will still be bulls and pounding the table because prices are now lower, but the media will be dialing up the perma bears and giving them their front page coverage. YAWN.

HYPE-PANIC, HYPE-PANIC

Now that we are in the PANIC cycle, all I am interested in doing is looking at my favorite ideas and deciding where I am willing to add more capital.

Apple, Adobe, GPS stocks, Gold, Oil, shipping and selected internet are themes I still believe in so I want to watch them in periods of panic to take advantage of long term positioning.

Apple - Stock is awful but business is good. Spectacular 5th Avenue store and perfect execution of business. Broken and I sold a little mid week. Now I am hoping for much lower prices to add.
Adobe - Video is my bet. Stock has been destroyed in recent weeks so I am close to adding.
GPS Stocks - "Dude, where's my car, phone, kids, underwear, paintings, wife."
Shipping - The world is shrinking
Gold - Still trending
Oil - Still trending
Internet - Inning one.

That said, I found some real interesting articles and a new blogger that are must weekend reads. In the Gold and Oil space, I really enjoyed reading Greg Silberman's blog this week and am adding him to the blogroll. Clear and focused with a depth of knowledge on themes that interest me. "War in October" and "Stagflation Here We Come" are awesome.

On the technology side, Fred Wilson gave a heads up on one of his favorite blogs . In the latest post, Fox News gets kudos for their acquisition strategy with an in-depth look of why they are right and I want to focus any internet investments in this area. Thank goodness GolfNow fits the model described or I would have to bury the article :) .

I love reading that YouTube now gets more traffic than BBC . As the argument rages over it's business model and competition, Michael Arrington at Tech Crunch reminds me that Adobe is the real benefactor of this explosion:

"Frankly, the online video space is getting so crazy that I put off a demo of the product from founders Rodrigo Sepulveda Schulz and Ivan Communod until the end of the conference. The real winner seems to be Adobe - its new Flash development platform is so robust that everyone seems to be developing their own video product, and most are basically variations on the same thing."

PS - Lips like that are always in a bull market - wooo

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