June 14, 2006

Real Estate - 10,000 foot view

I am no real estate expert, but here is what I have been seeing and reading the last 24 hours.

Jeff Matthews chimes in on New York

I have some real estate investments with one of my best friends who develops in Payson and Prescott, Arizona and he says things have REALLY slowed lately and fast! These fringe areas can disintegrate into a sea of illiquidity.

On a positive note, the lending business (which I am hevily reliant upon) always looks better at times like this as the "rookies" get smacked around. Blair, who has been teaching me the ropes, has been doing this for 20 years and has never seen so many "newbies" lending out money at "too low" rates and "too risky" deals.

Part of what I do is make sure I see every real estate deal I can in the area and there has been a whole lot of crap being pitched around town - "in size" as well.

I do not short, but have pulled the following stocks onto my watchlist in case I get tempted:

BRE
MAA

Let me just say I am tempted on these if we get a rally.

The homebuilders have already been smoked and I am not as negative on these as everybody else from these levels.

The renters are smiling a little.

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